Jakarta, – The Ministry of Transportation predicts a potential national movement of 110.67 million people during the Christmas and New Year (Nataru) period. This movement potential encompasses all provinces in Indonesia, spread over 22 days from December 18, 2024, to January 8, 2025, based on the 2020 BPS census projection of Indonesia’s population in 2024, which is 281.60 million.
“An estimated 54.81 million or 19.46% are expected to move within the province, while 55.86 million people or 19.84% are expected to move between provinces. Meanwhile, 170.93 million are predicted not to travel at the end of this year,” said Minister of Transportation Dudy Purwagandhi in a working meeting with Commission V of the Indonesian House of Representatives, Wednesday (4/12/2024).
The reasons for traveling are dominated by vacations to tourist destinations at 45.67%, vacations to return to hometowns at 32.36%, celebrating Christmas/New Year in hometowns at 19.96%, and tasks/work at 2%.
“The preference for using private vehicles is 53.78% or around 59.52 million, consisting of 39.2 million cars and 19.6 million motorcycles,” said Dudy.
The route most frequently taken by cars is the Trans Java Toll Road at 24.89% (6.67 million), followed by the Trans Sumatra Toll Road at 19.84% (5.31 million), and the Cipularang Toll Road at 8.28%. (2,22 Juta).
“The main routes that will be most traversed by motorcycles are the North Coast Route of Java (Pantura) at 34.81% and the Central Java Route at 29.11%,” said Dudy.
The predicted data on the potential movement of each mode is obtained from the validation of perception survey data using correction factors and growth factors. (growth factor).
The correction factor is obtained from the average difference between the survey results and the realizations of previous years, while the growth factor is obtained from the average growth of the realizations of previous years.
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