LSI Denny JA Says the Winner of the Jakarta Pilkada Cannot Be Determined Yet: There is a Margin of Error

The LSI Denny JA survey agency released the quick count results for 7 provinces in Indonesia, including Jakarta. LSI Denny JA researcher Ardian Sopa said that the quick count results have not yet been able to show who the winner of the 2024 Jakarta gubernatorial election is.

According to Ardian, the winner of the Jakarta Pilkada is not only determined by the largest number of votes but must also exceed 50% + 1 vote. “Up to now, LSI Denny JA cannot determine whether it will be one or two rounds because there is a margin of error of +/- 1 percent,” said Ardian in his statement, quoted on Thursday (28/11/2024).

Ardian detailed that the quick count results from LSI Denny JA, with 99.0 percent of sample data and a voter turnout (VTO) of 53.05 percent, showed that the gubernatorial and vice-gubernatorial candidates number 3, Pramono Anung-Rano Karno, led with 49.95 percent.

Followed by the number 1 candidate pair Ridwan Kamil-Suswono at 39.37 percent. Then, in the last position, there are the number 2 candidate pair Dharma Pongrekun and Kun Wardana Abyoto at 10.68 percent.

“So if later the Pramono-Bang Doel pair achieves 50 + 1 votes, it can certainly be a single round. But if it turns out to be below that due to the margin of error, it certainly will not be a single round,” explained Ardian.

Ardian explained that a quick count is a vote tally from a number of randomly and proportionally selected polling stations (TPS) from the entire population of TPS. A quick count must be conducted professionally and proportionally, as without these capabilities, the organizers could make errors in the results.

“This is indeed something we have to wait for the real count or the recapitulation from the KPU, so later the KPU will inform us whether DKI Jakarta will have one or two rounds,” said Ardian.

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