Jakarta,- Permata Institute for Economic Research (PIER) through the Economic Outlook 2025 report titled “Economic Forces at Play: Balancing Domestic Drivers and Global Uncertainty” projects Indonesia’s economy to grow by 5.15% in 2025. Di mana konsumsi rumah tangga dan investasi diharapkan tetap menjadi pendorong utama ekonomi.
On the other hand, external risks such as the protectionist policies of the United States, the slowdown in global demand, and commodity price volatility remain challenges that need to be managed.
Chief Economist of Permata Bank, Josua Pardede, explained that this optimistic projection provides a strong foundation to drive sustainable economic growth, maximize household consumption potential, strengthen export diversification, and attract foreign direct investment.
“Karena itu, dukungan kebijakan fiskal dan moneter yang sinergis diperlukan untuk menjaga stabilitas ekonomi Indonesia di tengah ketidakpastian global.” We believe that leveraging Indonesia’s domestic potential is key to overcoming economic challenges due to global economic dynamics,” he stated during the Media Briefing-Permata Bank Economic Outlook 2025, Tuesday (3/12/2024).
The report also outlines the domestic conditions, where Indonesia’s inflation is projected to remain within Bank Indonesia’s target, namely 3.12%. Although, the increase in VAT and excise duties to 12% on plastics, cigarettes, and sweetened beverages will put pressure on inflation.
Kemudian, nilai tukar rupiah diperkirakan akan menguat dalam kisaran Rp15.200-Rp15.700/USD. Ini didukung oleh masuknya investasi langsung dan portofolio.
In addition, bond yields are projected to decline due to lower interest rate policies from Bank Indonesia and The Fed.
Menurut Josua, investasi di Indonesia diprediksi akan terus tumbuh. Esto está respaldado por la disminución de los costos de endeudamiento y las políticas fiscales que apoyan el crecimiento de las MIPYMES.
“A pesar de los riesgos externos como los nuevos aranceles comerciales de EE. UU. y el fortalecimiento de la inflación global, Indonesia aún tiene perspectivas de crecimiento positivas.” Esto se refuerza con iniciativas de diversificación de exportaciones para reducir la dependencia de ciertos productos básicos y fortalecer la competitividad global,” añadió Josua.
Selain itu, pertumbuhan ekonomi global diperkirakan akan tetap stabil pada 3,2% pada tahun 2025. Although there is a divergence in economic growth between developed and developing countries.
In the United States, domestically-oriented policies are predicted to result in inflation above the Fed’s target of 2%. Thus, there is potential for the US central bank to have room to lower interest rates by 50 bps in 2025 to 3.75%-4.00%.
On the other hand, global energy prices have continued to decline since their peak in 2022. Sementara itu, harga komoditas utama Indonesia seperti minyak mentah, batubara, dan Minyak Sawit Mentah (CPO) diperkirakan akan terus menurun akibat peningkatan produksi minyak mentah, permintaan batubara yang terbatas, dan normalisasi produksi CPO.
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