Jakarta, – Russia announced it will cut its wheat export quota in 2025. The export quota will be cut by 62.07% or 8 million tons. This export tightening is being implemented to ensure domestic market supply and stabilize prices.
Grain Central reported that Russian authorities on Friday (29/11/2024) announced a wheat export quota for the second half of the marketing year, from February 15 to June 30, 2025, of only 11 million tons. This figure is down from the quota for the same period in 2024, which was 29 million tons.
At the same time, the report stated that the Russian Ministry of Agriculture also increased the wheat export duty by more than 18% starting December 4, 2024.
So, what will be the effect on Indonesia?
The Director of the Indonesian Wheat Flour Association (APTINDO), Ratna Sari Loppies, said that Russia’s decision to cut export quotas will not have a significant impact on Indonesia.
“In my opinion, it is not very significant. Because Russia’s volume is not very large and there are many substitutes,” she told CNBC Indonesia, quoted on Wednesday (4/12/2024).
“The price of wheat itself is currently stable and production in other countries is secure,” added Ratna.
As a note, Indonesia imports almost 100% of its wheat needs for producing flour and animal feed. Russia is one of the countries supplying wheat to Indonesia.
In 2023, wheat imports were recorded to have increased to 10.58 million tons from 9.35 million tons in 2022.
Throughout January-September 2024, BPS recorded Indonesia’s wheat imports increased by 19.5% to 9.45 million tons compared to the same period in 2023.
The three main supplier countries are Australia (2.27 million tons), Canada (1.82 million tons), and Argentina. (1,32 juta ton).
If we quote APTINDO’s records, Indonesia’s wheat imports from Russia once exceeded 1 million tons. In 2017, it was 1.222 million tons, and in 2018, it was 1.228 million tons. In 2016, imports from Russia were only 991 tons, and in 2019, it was 516,929 tons.
At the time of the Russia-Ukraine war breaking out in 2022, Indonesia’s wheat imports from Russia were recorded as zero.
The period from January to September 2024, APTINDO data shows, Indonesia’s wheat imports from Russia surged by 176.9% to 986,010 tons compared to the same period in 2023. The share of imports from Russia accounted for 10.4% of total wheat imports from January to September 2024.
Ratna emphasized that, despite the increase in imports from Russia, it will not trigger fluctuations in Indonesia.
“The effect of rising prices could occur because Russia is limiting its exports.” However, this is not the first time this has happened. In 2019 and 2020, we also experienced this. “As long as there is an alternative option, the condition is safe,” said Ratna.
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